After the restart of the season, Manchester United's strong performance in the league made the fans very satisfied, but for coach Solskjaer, there were two different evaluations.
Fans who support the coach believe that the Norwegian can bring such a young team back against the wind and squeeze out Leicester City, which has been in the Champions League for most of the season, at the last moment. This is the coaching ability of the coach. reflect;
The other side believes that even if Manchester United can win the Europa League (Manchester United has been eliminated by Sevilla in the early hours of the 17th), Solskjaer’s results have not surpassed Van Gaal and Mourinho. The predecessors also led the team back to the Champions League and won the FA Cup, League Cup and Europa League, but the two failed to get rid of the fate of the get out of class, so it is too early for Solskjaer to make a conclusion.
Indeed, Fan, Mu, and Suo each have their own merits, and it is still difficult to distinguish between them. But if we change the direction, from the perspective of the club's commercial development, we can give a simple performance appraisal to the coaches after Ferguson's retirement, perhaps we can get a clearer answer.
We can set a "input-output ratio" indicator for evaluation. The so-called "investment" refers to the sum of the team's transfer cost and salary expenditure in each season. The transfer cost here is not the "net transfer expenditure" that is often said, but the amortized cost of the transfer fee under the financial caliber, because this indicator covers a larger area and is more scientific (Fans of accounting professionals should be aware ).
As for "output", it is the broadcast income of each season. After all, the head coach is not a commercial operation post, and can only have an indirect impact on commercial income and game day income, while the head coach’s team performance has a more direct impact on broadcast income. Therefore, we only use the two main broadcast revenues of the Premier League and the Champions League as the output data of the head coach.
In addition, some numerical adjustments should be made according to actual conditions in the calculation. For example, in the 13-14 season, the team's revenue from the Champions League matches was 39 million, of which 7 million was the income from the competition. Obviously, the 7 million was attributed to Ferguson last season and had nothing to do with Moyes. Therefore, in the calculation, the income from the competition should be deducted from Moyes and included in the previous season.
Now enter the evaluation link:
In the 2013-14 season, Manchester United's total input costs increased by 47 million, an increase of 21%. In the previous 5 seasons, the team's cost increase was no more than 22 million, and in two seasons it was even around 10 million. Judging from the input data, Manchester United is quite interesting for Moyes.
Some people think that Ferguson can spend a small amount of money to do big things, it is because Sir Alex Ferguson has been running the team for many years, and he has already been familiar with the control of the tactical system. Coupled with his unique vision, he can choose practical players according to the needs of the system; and the same If you change the coach’s command, you will have to discount the player and system. If you want to achieve results, you must make a large-scale adjustment. From this perspective, the increase of 47 million investment is not too much.
Having said that, from the perspective of management, Moyes will never let Moyes come to "change the world" at all costs. After all, Manchester United is not the kind of team that "turns around". Moreover, according to later news, Moyes was not the first candidate for succession. It was just that the few in front of him were unwilling to come. Therefore, it is absolutely impossible for Manchester United to stud directly on Moyes.
Moreover, Moyes' coaching output is indeed too low. Although broadcast income has increased over the previous year, the reason is that the season just caught up with the Premier League’s implementation of the new broadcast distribution plan, and income was originally a natural increase. And if Manchester United can squeeze into the top four, the income will be more, so this season's broadcast income is actually "negative growth."
In the Champions League, Moyes led the team to the top 8 and earned 32 million for Manchester United. However, failing to lead the team to any European war qualifications caused the club to lose about 50 million pounds in the following season, including Manchester United The extremely rare game day in history has seen a significant drop in revenue. These performances obviously broke the bottom line of Manchester United's top management and can only be dismissed.
Van Gaal's seniority is much higher than that of Moyes, so he has a higher authority in adjusting personnel. In the 2014-15 season, Van Gaal made major adjustments to the lineup, cleaning up players to obtain a book profit of 23.6 million, the second peak in 10 years; in terms of investment, the team’s transfer cost increased by another 44 million, and the total salary It dropped by 12 million, which was because the team had no European wars to play and saved bonus expenditures. After the two costs are added together, the increase rate reaches 12%.
Van Gaal的资历远高于Moyes，因此他在调整人员方面具有更高的权威。在2014-15赛季，范加尔（Van Gaal）对阵容进行了重大调整，清理了球员，使账面利润达到2360万，这是10年来的第二高峰；在投资方面，该团队的转会成本又增加了4400万，而总工资却减少了1200万，这是因为该团队没有参加欧洲战争的经历，并且节省了奖金支出。将这两个成本加在一起后，增长率达到12％。
In the first season of coaching Manchester United, Van Gaal led the team back to the top 4 in the league and returned to the Champions League. From the book point of view, Van Gaal's input-output ratio this season is 36%, which is lower than Moyes, but this is caused by his lack of European qualifications and has nothing to do with Van Gaal. After adjusting the data in combination with the previous two seasons , The resulting input-output ratio is 40%.
Although Van Gaal failed to lead Manchester United to rebuild its glory, at least the turbulent season of Manchester United stabilized. With this momentum, Manchester United should have continued to invest and let Van Gaal complete the transformation of the tactical system as soon as possible, especially when Manchester United increased the Champions League game, it is more necessary to increase investment.
But in the second season, the team's investment did not increase significantly. The increase of 18 million was mainly due to the recovery of bonus payments after the team returned to the Champions League. The consequence of the slowdown in investment is the decline in record. The team ranked fifth in the league, the Champions League and the Europa League both stopped in the top 16 and lost the qualification for the Champions League.
In the second season, Van Gaal's input-output ratio was still 40%, without any growth. But it must be noted that this result was greatly affected by the sudden slowdown in team investment. If the input cost growth can be the same as last season, the result is likely to be different. If Moyes's "Eternal Injustice" is an exaggeration, then Van Gaal's "June Flying Snow" is not much different.
In the first season of Mourinho's entry into the team, Manchester United's investment has increased significantly. Player transfers and salary costs have increased by 67.65 million, which is the highest growth season after Ferguson's retirement. Mourinho didn't let the team's high investment evaporate. Although only ranked 6th in the league, he led his team to win the League Cup and returned to the Champions League as the UEFA Champions League, once again returning the team to stability.
In terms of income, due to the implementation of a new broadcast agreement by the Premier League, Manchester United's league broadcast revenue has increased significantly, and the 50% input-output ratio is also the highest value after Ferguson's retirement. However, in the second season, Manchester United's investment growth rate began to slow down again, an increase of 46 million from the previous season, an increase of 12%, the growth rate is even lower than that of Moyes.
The 12% increase is the same as the data when Van Gaal first took over. Mourinho led the team to the Premier League runner-up and received 155 million league broadcast revenue. However, in the Champions League, the impact of shrinking income is still apparent. Manchester United only reached the top 16 with a profit of 40.48 million and an input-output ratio of 45%, which was 5 percentage points lower than last season. On the whole, Mourinho's performance this season is inferior to last season, but better than Van Gaal's 14-15 season.
The picture above is the 18-19 performance sheet. This season, as for who Mu and Suo contributed a lot, there is not much discussion significance. The important data is that the team's cost increase has decreased by 20 million. In other words, Mourinho has been coaching for 2 years, and the growth rate of the team's investment is declining at a rate of more than 20 million per year. When the growth rate is reduced to 6% again, Mourinho, like Van Gaal, has dropped out of class.
Although Manchester United has not yet announced the full-year financial report, this does not affect our calculation of Solskjaer's performance. Regardless of the impact of the epidemic, according to the distribution plan of the Premier League and UEFA, Solskjaer's revenue generated by the two fronts of the Premier League and the European War should be around 208 million pounds.
Based on this calculation, Solskjaer's input-output ratio has reached 51%, surpassing Mourinho in the 16-17 season by a slight advantage, becoming the best performance in the post-Ferguson era.
The biggest highlight of Solskjaer is that his results were achieved when the input cost showed a "negative growth" for the first time. This season, Manchester United's cost reduction has reached 11%, reducing the scale to the level of 3 years ago. Fan and Mu did not get rid of the fate of dismissing get out of class when the increase in input cost shrank to single digits.
At 120 million pounds, it is almost the same as Manchester United’s net investment in one season of transfers. Under huge financial pressure, Ferguson can only calculate carefully. Sir Alex Ferguson relied on his strong skills to let the team complete the metabolism. Within 8 years after Glazer took over, he led the team to 5 Premier League titles and 3 Asian championships, and also won the Champions League. The good performance caused financial institutions to lower interest rates one after another, and this resulted in the capital of "Yi Jian Lian" later.
Although Solskjaer's current performance can not be compared with Ferguson, but it is also a bit internal.
As far as performance is concerned, it is not an exaggeration to say that Solskjaer is the best in the post-Ferguson era, or to give the Norwegian a "excellent" evaluation in this season's praise report. However, just a single performance sheet does not show that Solskjaer's ability really surpasses Van Gaal and Mourinho. After all, the level of support the Norwegians have received is something that Fan and Mu did not have.
You must know that although the cost of input has fallen, Solskjaer’s transfer budget is actually not low, and the young strategy he implements is very risky. This is the risk that the team once fell into a trough in the first half of the season. The embodiment. However, the club gave the coach full trust. Buying and selling in the transfer market basically followed the coach's thinking. After the introduction of B fees during the winter window, the team finally achieved a bottoming out.
Fan and Mu did not receive such treatment. After Van Gaal's stable record, he suffered a sudden jam; Mourinho's criticism of the team's transfer work has never stopped. Once the team's investment growth slowed down, neither of them could get rid of bad luck. This is definitely not just a problem for the coach. If the two can get more support in management, their performance is likely to have room for improvement, and Manchester United will not have to spend so much transfer money every season.
The experience of Van Gaal and Mourinho was also a reflection of the management problems of the club at that time. Although after Ferguson retired, Manchester United's business development was in full swing, which also allowed Ed Woodward to gain the reputation of being able to sponsor. But fundamentally speaking, the leaps and bounds in business can be attributed to Sir Alex Ferguson, because the foundation of the team's commercial value is that he took the team with one shot. But the chaos in team management swallowed up the business foundation bit by bit.
For example, last summer, Adidas suddenly intervened in Pogba’s transfer and made it clear that it was to protect the interests of sponsors; Chevrolet not only announced in a high profile that it would no longer cooperate with Manchester United after the contract expires, but also promoted that the advertising costs were not worth it. It can be seen that the commercial value of Manchester United has fallen sharply in the eyes of sponsors.
The fees paid by Adidas and Chevrolet accounted for 49% of Manchester United’s business revenue last season and 21% of its total revenue. They are an important pillar of Manchester United’s operating income. The two sponsors have "storms" one after another, which shows that Manchester United is proud of it. Commercial development, there has been a great crisis, and the root of the crisis lies in the ups and downs of the team's performance.
Perhaps it was commercial pressure that forced the club to change its concept and return the core position to the coaching bench. As a result, various small groups and various discord rumors disappeared, and even Pogba's thorny head was also revealed. Out of a very strong desire to fight, and gladly accepted the position of the midfielder farther from the goal, and this is the starting point of the conflict between the French and Mourinho.
It can be seen that Solskjaer can achieve excellent performance, in addition to his own ability, but also benefit from the club's ability to reverse the concept. When the club decides to return to tradition and no longer focus on the commercial value of the players and the team, even if Solskjaer's seniority is still relatively young, the team can deliver a performance that satisfies the fans.
And restoring the fans' confidence is more important than Manchester United's regaining the Champions League qualification. This is not something that can be exchanged just by investing money. The Norwegian’s performance shows that putting the core position in the coaching bench is the true DNA of Manchester United. If Manchester United can adhere to this philosophy, I believe that the performance of the head coach will continue to improve. The bottoming out this season will also become a rise again. Starting point.